Weather and global warming

In response to a few member who like to post and read sometimes on the Maule forum something unrelated to Maules and flying, you may use this section. Plz keep it still non-offensive and clean and adhere to the agreement you accepted by becoming a member.
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Brenton C
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Post by Brenton C »

My answer to Leo's question is that some areas, more than others, suffer a higher proportion of noise (or error) in the signal to noise ratio.

From your own examples, I believe engineering, metallurgy etc etc are better understood and, by their nature, more predictable with greater precision than weather.

So I will heed practices that predict long life for my trusty Continental. Predictions that stretch years into the future.

Weather reports do not stretch reliably past the next few days.

The popular debate over climate change is one instance of the problem of this information age. Computers are everywhere. We have ready access to much bad information. The layman, like me, is not going to read the scientific journals -- most laymen don't have the background to be able to critically evaluate what they'd be reading if they did.

So, the layman relies on the media, with its flaws. News media have their biases. One bias is toward the sensational. If any list members have ever been interviewed for a quote or an opinion to be put in the paper or a popular magazine, I bet you can confirm you were subject to pressure to agree with statements that falsely distorted things in ways that sensationalizes the matter.

News media are drawn to the dramatic, and want to dramatize the "facts" because the public not only have a "right to know", but they have an obligation to give the public "something to know about"--and in so doing, sell papers and, of course, advertising. If it doesn't sell, it isn't "news."

Another bias is that stuff that happens is more newsworthy if it makes consumers feel helpless, vulnerable etc. Our psychological organization is biased to privilege threat over the innocuous when it comes to demanding our attention, and news sells to that. So news stories not only select, but present stories that emphasize the vulnerability to which we are helplessly subject. Deaths in car accidents are reported, but rarely information about whether seat belts are worn. Crimes reported, but their resolutions rarely reported.

Social psych research reported over 20 years ago that consumption of media news is related to more depression and anxiety, and a more greatly over estimated sense of the likelihood of being a victim of violent crime. I tell my depressed and anxious clients to stop watching and reading the news.

If the layman doesn't trust the media, s/he has good reason not to trust it. The sky may very well be falling, but if it isn't, it makes a damn good news story. It has all the elements. It's a universal threat, it's catastrophic--it's better than unpreventable: it's hypothetically preventable, if we could only alter human nature in ways we almost surely cannot. So it's a story that plays to, if not elicits uncontainable frustration and worry.

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DonLindsay
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Post by DonLindsay »

I've been away, but since the discussion didn't die, I'll pick the last few to respond to;

Brenton C, you say that "Weather reports do not stretch reliably past the next few days.", Yes, but climate and weather aren't the same thing. For example, look at http://www.nodc.noaa.gov/OC5/3M_HEAT_CONTENT/. Looks to me like there's a trend that's lasted decades, not days, and shows no signs of giving up. And that's the average temperature of the whole ocean - not something that's easy to change.

For those who want to "follow the money", http://www.sciencemag.org/content/333/6045/1024. If you read it, they followed up on 764 species whose geographic range has been reported to have changed. We're talking birds, mosquitoes in Australia, and such, as reported by people all over the world. (People who study wild mosquitoes aren't in it for the money. And the tradition in Britain is that amateurs record the wildflowers.) Just from the changes in range, they deduce a velocity of 17 kilometers per decade, away from the equator toward the poles. Or in the case of mountain species, 11 meters vertically per decade.

Many hundreds of species all have the same idea, and have had it for decades. I'm sure it's a coincidence. Oh, and biologists aren't climate scientists.

truthinbeer, "The report that precipitated the common global warming debate, that the Himalayas were melting, was a false report. The figures show that if anything there is more freezing conditions in recent years than before."

Um, no. I'm sorry to hear that you've encountered the gross misinformation that's out there. For me, the global warming debate started in the 1980's. The IPCC report of 2007 did have a mistake, yes, claiming that the Himalayan glaciers were melting rapidly. But that mistake was about as important as a pimple on a moose. The goverment of India complained, at the time, because back then it was their official position that Everything Would Be Fine. That is no longer their opinion. Both they and the government of China now officially agree that the Himalayas are losing several cubic kilometers of ice per year. Here's a comparison to other regions: http://www.nature.com/climate/2010/1003 ... 19_F1.html and here's a worldwide total: http://www.geo.uzh.ch/microsite/wgms/mb ... 2_2013.pdf. They call it a "mass balance" because we measure the mass of the entire mountain range, every month, from satellites. If the mass changes from month to month, well they graph it.

Oh, and the mass numbers come from physicists, not climate scientists.

The good news is that the IPCC put out a new report in 2014, and Big Oil doesn't seem to have found any mistakes in it yet.

G-MAWL - love that call sign ! I apologize for questioning the Loch Ness Monster. Bigfoot and I will clink our beers to her tonight.

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Post by Green Hornet »

The older I get the more I like fair weather flying! It is much less stressful & much more enjoyable from my personal perspective. Weather always has played a role in flight. As for Climate Change that has been going on since the birth of the earth. When East Anglia got hacked it was discovered that the numbers in the model for analyzing climate trends, based on man made carbon, were fudged. That was the straw that confirmed my belief that it was a crock! We are all aware of the solar panel scam that cost tax payers millions of dollars. In addition even if we the US & Canada were at zero carbon output from humans. What about China & India who don't manage Corporate pollution never mind carbon output? Even here at home we are forced to recycle at great expense while sanitation companies are caught dumping all the refuse into the same big hole! We all know about the Hospital medical waste being dumped in Oceans. Never mind the nuclear waste being dumped in the Southwest. The ugly truth is that its all a big lie and corruption reigns supreme...
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DonLindsay
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Post by DonLindsay »

Green Hornet: "When East Anglia got hacked it was discovered that the numbers in the model for analyzing climate trends, based on man made carbon, were fudged. That was the straw that confirmed my belief that it was a crock!"

Oddly, the Pentagon disagrees with you. And this month's Flying magazine. Not to mention the multiple investigations of East Angla, all of which came up dry.

"We are all aware of the solar panel scam that cost tax payers millions of dollars." Um, would you be referring to G.W.Bush's highly successful program, that's making a multi-billion-dollar profit for the taxpayers ? http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... s-a-profit

"Never mind the nuclear waste being dumped in the Southwest." Oh, don't worry about the little stuff. "Normal Accidents", by Perrow, argued convincingly that, well, accidents are normal and nothing is going to stop them from happening. So another Fukushima is somewhere in the cards. Isn't life grand.

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Green Hornet
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Of course the Pentagon supports Climate Change & so does NASA both of which depend on funding of huge amounts of Tax Payer Dollars. Job security is the name of the Game. I notice that your didn't disagree with the China / India non participation in the man made Carbon fraud. Look how our economy has suffered with no positive results for two decades... I deal in facts I do not ever see you Climate Change advocates talk about results from this flim flam scam! The fact is just because you label the opposition armed with facts as "Deniers" the real denial is from the Climate Change noveau religion. http://www.newsmax.com/Newsmax-Tv/John- ... id/613663/ BTW G. Bush is a Progressive just like Jeb Bush in so many of his actions from border control to climate change scam! If more attention was payed to the important issues like nuclear waste rather then man made Carbon it would at least be productive. Solyndra went out of business! Dead Bug Belly up!
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DonLindsay
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Post by DonLindsay »

Green Hornet: "I notice that your didn't disagree with the China / India non participation in the man made Carbon fraud." As I said, I'm not here to sell something. I'm only here because there are things I don't put up with.

"Solyndra went out of business! Dead Bug Belly up!" Yes, it did. But I'm not clear why you think it's worth mentioning ? They didn't die because no one wants solar cells. The competitors that ate their lunch are doing fine. For example, http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/ ... 0FINAL.pdf talks about how SolarCity plans to install a gigawatt of cells in the USA in 2015. There are something like 50,000 solar jobs in California alone. Jobs are a good thing.

"The fact is just because you label the opposition armed with facts as "Deniers"..." Um, this is where we disagree. The deniers are usually armed with poorly chosen facts. For example, the guy who had a graph showing the difference between arctic winter temperatures and arctic summer temperatures. They were getting closer together, and he argued that this meant that global warming was slowing. Gee, no, that's bad logic.

You pointed to a paper by John L. Casey. He claims his paper is "peer reviewed", but apparently he doesn't know what that means. It does NOT mean that you showed it to your buddies. It means that the editor of a journal sent your paper to some people in the field, and they ripped it to shreds, and then you fixed your awful mistakes. (I speak from experience.) Scientists are only human, but the peer review process does wonders for the quality control. And that's why I'm dubious about Mr. Casey (as he styles himself). He didn't risk the baptism of fire that every scientist goes through.

Also, he wrote this paper almost a decade ago? And he predicted that things would be getting colder by now? No, I've already pointed out that the ocean temperature is still going up. The glaciers are still melting. Walruses just started risking their butts (do they have butts?) by having babies on land instead of on ice. http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news ... al-warming

Here's another kind of data. You know how a local weatherman will say things like "This is the coldest June eleventh Podunk has had since 1959". Well, what would a changing climate do to those records ? If things were cooling off, we'd expect that, in a 12 month period, we'd see more record lows than record highs. Well do we? Look here: https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cdo-web/datatools/records and you can see that in the last year, all-time high records outnumber all-time low records by 64 to 33. Hmm, no cooling. Here's a graph of that by decade:http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/scienc ... fragment-6

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51598Rob
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Post by 51598Rob »

Seriously Don, this is NOT a scientific issue.... It is an economic issue. When so many Individuals and Governments are siphoning money from others, and its citizens, by perpetuating a money based industry that the general population gets no value from, skeptics are created! Good grief, you quoted National Geographic as a credible source for the Environmental Industries platform. They were proponents of shutting down all Industrial activities to save Antarctic Penguins that, to ensure their survival, needed to walk a hundred miles inland to nest. It turns out that 2 years later when the ice receded, and they only had to travel half that distance, survival rate in adults and young was much higher. We humans, by nature, need a crises. Maybe we could discover an endangered species in Afganistan, and finally solve that issue!
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Green Hornet
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Post by Green Hornet »

Don you continue to use here say with no tangible facts to support your position. The East Anglia hack produced emails to & from the " Scientist" that used the words "Fudged Data" to keep funding! Where is your evidence that these emails didn't exist? They were published! The model itself was found faulty. Like I said your claim with no facts that the Polar caps are melting but the science contradicts this model as well from actual measurements of the ice! The data that you bring to the debate is based on faulty models. This Scam has been going on for 20 years with the no actual , factual change whatsoever in global temps! With Food staple for fuel, the Mercury filled light bulbs, the numerous recipes for auto fuel & what is the accomplishment? What has been done by the useful idiots is psuedo science with knee jerk reactions that has resulted in more damage then good. When it comes to China, India, other countries that are not participating that have the population & carbon emissions to make your ilks efforts infinitesimal. The current administration has been able in 6 years to have the entire world of governments hate the USA & everything we stand for & that goes for Climate Change religion! Even if your ilk could convince every citizen you'll never convince the world! Its another drug fueled pipe dream that is based on nonsense of the highest order! As for the the personal attack on Mr Casey that is what you people do when the data contradicts your religious fervor for climate change with facts! This is an exercise in futility to debate a zealot! Climate Change is just a manufactured Crisis that is based on a mindset of a Flim Flam artist in order steal Tax Payer or borrowed money!
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Green Hornet
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Post by Green Hornet »

This article the most current on the subject of Climate Change spells out the controversy in a nutshell! http://www.nationalreview.com/article/4 ... rt-darwall
Last edited by Green Hornet on Mon May 25, 2015 3:54 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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rjb
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Post by rjb »

We do have satellites. Paranoid as I am and in love with promoting conspiracies, I have yet to promote the idea that satellite pictures are doctored.

Here is a trend of the artic:
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Featur ... ea_ice.php

I think this is why they are about to begin drilling for oil there.

Here is the (non) trend of the antartic:
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Featur ... _south.php

I am in favor of reducing pollution whether it is called reacting to climate change or not. 40 years ago the S.F. bay area was not all the great air wise (better than Philadelphia but that was a low hurdle); today it's tolerable. 40 years ago, Germany was losing their Black Forest; now it is not so much a crisis. China is polluting the world but they seem to understand they have problem and, maybe they too in 40 years, will have addressed it.

(Couldn't resist stirring the pot, Bill.)

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Post by Green Hornet »

Hey Dick, I'm just glad to hear you're still stirring the pot! lol How the hell are ya? Seriously I don't think anybody is not against pollution but Selecting isolated phenomena — an iceberg here, a typhoon there, even the disintegration of Syria into barbarism — is a substitute for the real thing, namely, the eighteen-plus years’ failure of average global temperature to rise in line with climate-model predictions. The pause, or hiatus, is a problem for climate scientists in the sense that nature is presenting them with something they had not anticipated and want to understand. For climate alarmists led by President Obama, it is a bigger problem than that. “The science is indisputable,” the president said Wednesday at the Coast Guard Academy commencement address. “The planet is getting warmer,” he falsely claimed. Global warming is preeminently a political project. On Tuesday, the leaders of France and Germany met to set a goal for the December climate summit in Paris: to fully decarbonize the world economy by the end of the century. It required, Angela Merkel and François Hollande declared, “a profound transformation of the world economy and society.” The role of experts is to provide a scientific consensus to support the drumbeat of alarm. When the president of America declares climate change an immediate threat to national security and accuses skeptics of “negligence” and “dereliction of duty,” scientific skepticism becomes an enemy of the state. The shrillness of the president’s rhetoric draws attention to the weakness of the science. The true believers have given up trying to win over the undecided. It is good to hear from you! Are you still flying your baby? Take care Bill
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rjb
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Post by rjb »

I'm doing OK; have to fly chaperoned. Jim talked to Martin last month about getting back to flying end enjoying all that hard work Jim put into restoring his 180. I hope to have an LSA in the near future.

I'd rather have politicians trying to create policies on input from their scientific advisers rather than their religious leaders.

Scientific models fall apart all the time but not always to the extent that the model has no linkage.

Here's a link to data from 1880 to 2015:
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/table ... GLB.Ts.txt
I think NASA can be very reluctant to acknowledge mistakes in data collection but I don't think they have any bias.

The United Nations has an intergovernmental panel on climate change:
http://www.ipcc.ch/

They created in this in 2014 to influence political leaders:
http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-repor ... AL_SPM.pdf

(stir stir chuckle chuckle)

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Green Hornet
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Post by Green Hornet »

The Millions spent & wasted on these studies with no effect on a world wide basis in 18 years seems to put the cart before the horse. There needs to be a World Wide effort if one is to believe the hysteria of the bought & paid for data. It reminds me of Comprehensive immigration. While we don't enforce the laws on the books & don't secure the border the Progressive anwser is to give a wave of Presidential Amnesty to illegal aliens (undocumented fugitives). Stir Stir Stir lol Logic dictates that improvements must have a plan in sequence of A then B then C then D etc.
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rjb
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Post by rjb »

Oo, oo, I think I can annoy everybody with this response to immigration.

Undocumented fugitives seem much more caring of their families and much more willing to work than a fair percentage of the children and grandchildren of the people I know. Some of those offspring that do have ambition aspire to be pimps and marijuana dealers/growers.

Those offspring, and I wouldn't mind adding the 30 year olds that have continuously lived at home, are the ones that I would like to expurge rather than undocumented aliens.

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Green Hornet
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Post by Green Hornet »

I knew I'd get a bite but you missed the point, Secure the Borders, Enforce current Law, then lets discuss this emotional, heart string ploy to make them all citizens! Even you can't be against deporting the criminals and make it so they can't get back in the country! Its not like we don't have plenty of down & out citizens to cry our hearts out over? The system in broken on purpose in order to create Voters! We don't need comprehensive Immigration Reform we just need to enforce current Law with human kindness over flowing... Can we also have one blend of gasoline is that asking to much? Can we make Solar Panels cost effective that are reliable & not made in China? Can we tear down the protected species Bird killing windmills? Can we give the farmers back their water & stop this idiotic bait fish lunacy. People are hungry all over the world & the CA. basin is a Dust Bowl, all for some Zealot who thinks a bait fish is more important. Species have come & gone its called survival of the fittest. I believe Darwin is a name that is familiar! Also for crying out loud stop the betrayal of our Warriors from rules of engagement, retreat without a SOFA to VA hospital corruption ! End the damn IRS and get a flat tax. How about removing some corrupt politicians like Hillary from the Narrative? How do you like me so far? Just Stirring the pot! ;)
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